The facts speak for themselves: last year was marked by the most severe drought ever recorded in the Horn of Africa, while the beginning of 2023 saw eight European countries – Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and Denmark – record their highest January temperatures. Indeed, The Guardian quoted the climatologist Maximiliano Herrera as saying, “We can regard this as the most extreme event in European history,” to which he added, “We can arguably say this is the first time an extreme weather event in Europe (in terms of extreme heat) is comparable to the most extreme in North America.”
As nations worldwide confront such realities, the insurance industry finds itself standing at the precipice of unprecedented challenges arising from the substantial economic losses that trail cataclysmically disruptive weather events resulting in an expanding protection gap. Advances in climate risk modeling, however, have given more savvy insurance professionals the tools to provide a measure of stability in our rapidly warming world.
The manifestations of climate change are readily seen in the rise of billion-dollar disasters. In 2022, there were 42 such events throughout the world. Whether it's wildfires and heatwaves in the Western states or severe storms and flooding in the central and eastern regions of the US, the disruptive powers of climate change are undeniable. Gallagher Re's Q1 2023 report threw matters into stark relief by noting that, globally, natural catastrophe economic losses hovered around $77 billion, with a mere $22 billion covered by public and private insurers. This leaves a daunting protection gap of $55 billion, underscoring the necessity for insurers to create products to serve otherwise ignored or underinsured markets.
Amid the turmoil wrought by climate change, reinsurers have emerged as beacons of financial stability. Despite the mounting pressures on their resources in the form of increased claims in areas hard-hit by extreme weather events, the reinsurance sector demonstrates resilience, with Fitch Ratings anticipating stable profitability in 2023. This stability is expected despite predicted double-digit percentage premium rate rises, propelled by insured losses of roughly $120 billion in 2022. A significant contributing factor to these rate increases is the amplified threat from climate change-induced natural disasters. Data-driven solutions, like parametric insurance, provide a compelling approach to managing these formidable risks.
Parametric insurance solutions tie payouts directly to measurable weather events, rather than incurred losses. This makes for a smooth and transparent claim resolution process, which is especially ideal for areas prone to extreme weather events, where traditional insurance models may fall short.
Climate risk modeling, a core component of these solutions, leverages vast amounts of data and sophisticated algorithms to project future climate scenarios. By harnessing these insights insurers and reinsurers can better develop new products to help their clients understand their exposure to climate risks and tackle them proactively.
It’s clear that the insurance industry needs to adapt to the evolving risks posed by climate change. By deploying tools such as advanced climate modeling and parametric insurance, the industry can work towards bridging the protection gap, ensuring the continuity of businesses in a rapidly changing, evermore complex, and interconnected world. To find out more about Arbol’s parametric solutions, contact us here.